Agriculture

The UK’s National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has raised alarms over the newly announced U.S.-UK trade deal, expressing concerns that two key agricultural sectors will bear the brunt of tariff concessions made to benefit other industries. NFU President Tom Bradshaw warned that British farmers risk being disproportionately impacted in future negotiations if the imbalance persists. Key Concerns:

China has reinstated five major Brazilian soybean exporters—including subsidiaries of Cargill, ADM, and Olam—weeks before President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s state visit, signaling a strategic move to solidify Brazil as its top soy supplier amid escalating tensions with the U.S. Key Details: Strategic Timing:

Argentina’s soybean harvest, already delayed by weeks of rain, has stalled completely after fresh downpours drenched the Pampas farm belt, raising risks of fungal damage and further squeezing global supplies of soy oil and meal. Key Developments: Economic Impact:

Oklahoma’s 2025 winter wheat harvest is projected at 101.169 million bushels, with an average yield of 35.9 bushels per acre (bpa), according to an annual crop tour by state experts. While this marks a 6.6% decline from 2024’s 108.3M bushels, industry estimates (averaging 103.336M bushels at 37.2 bpa) suggest slightly better prospects. Key Drivers: Market Context:

Russian wheat export prices declined last week as the new crop season approaches, with analysts dismissing concerns of significant frost damage to yields. Benchmark 12.5% protein wheat traded at 247–250/tonFOB∗∗,down∗∗247–250/tonFOB∗∗,down∗∗2–3 from the prior week, while new-crop offers hovered near $234–235/ton. Key Market Drivers: Forward Outlook:

The U.S. winter wheat crop is in its best shape in five years, with 51% rated good-to-excellent—up 2 percentage points from last week—as timely rains eased drought conditions across the Plains, the USDA reported. Meanwhile, corn planting surged to 40% completion, slightly ahead of the five-year average but just below analyst expectations. Key Highlights:

Brazil, the world’s top sugar supplier, is poised to produce a record 45.9 million metric tons of sugar in 2025/26, a 4% increase from the previous season, even as its sugarcane crop shrinks due to adverse weather, according to state agency Conab. Key Highlights:

The USDA’s latest crop progress report shows U.S. farmers ahead of schedule for corn and soybean planting despite wet weather delays, while wheat conditions improved more than expected after beneficial Plains rainfall. Key Highlights: Market Impact:Chicago wheat futures hit contract lows on improved crop prospects, while timely planting progress for corn and soybeans may ease supply concerns despite acreage shifts.

China’s Zhoushan Port is set to receive 40 Brazilian soybean vessels in April, a 48% jump from last year, as Beijing pivots away from U.S. suppliers amid escalating trade tensions. State-affiliated media reported the port will unload 700,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans this month—up 32% year-on-year—reinforcing China’s accelerating shift toward alternative suppliers. Key Drivers:

European wheat markets staged a modest recovery Friday, with Euronext futures climbing from contract lows as traders speculated about renewed export demand, including potential French wheat sales to Egypt. However, the rebound was tempered by a flood of competitively priced Ukrainian new-crop offers, keeping bullish sentiment in check. Market Highlights Ukrainian Pressure Crop & Logistics […]