Agriculture

Argentina’s soybean harvest, already delayed by weeks of rain, has stalled completely after fresh downpours drenched the Pampas farm belt, raising risks of fungal damage and further squeezing global supplies of soy oil and meal. Key Developments: Economic Impact:

Oklahoma’s 2025 winter wheat harvest is projected at 101.169 million bushels, with an average yield of 35.9 bushels per acre (bpa), according to an annual crop tour by state experts. While this marks a 6.6% decline from 2024’s 108.3M bushels, industry estimates (averaging 103.336M bushels at 37.2 bpa) suggest slightly better prospects. Key Drivers: Market Context:

Russian wheat export prices declined last week as the new crop season approaches, with analysts dismissing concerns of significant frost damage to yields. Benchmark 12.5% protein wheat traded at 247–250/tonFOB∗∗,down∗∗247–250/tonFOB∗∗,down∗∗2–3 from the prior week, while new-crop offers hovered near $234–235/ton. Key Market Drivers: Forward Outlook:

The U.S. winter wheat crop is in its best shape in five years, with 51% rated good-to-excellent—up 2 percentage points from last week—as timely rains eased drought conditions across the Plains, the USDA reported. Meanwhile, corn planting surged to 40% completion, slightly ahead of the five-year average but just below analyst expectations. Key Highlights:

Brazil, the world’s top sugar supplier, is poised to produce a record 45.9 million metric tons of sugar in 2025/26, a 4% increase from the previous season, even as its sugarcane crop shrinks due to adverse weather, according to state agency Conab. Key Highlights:

The USDA’s latest crop progress report shows U.S. farmers ahead of schedule for corn and soybean planting despite wet weather delays, while wheat conditions improved more than expected after beneficial Plains rainfall. Key Highlights: Market Impact:Chicago wheat futures hit contract lows on improved crop prospects, while timely planting progress for corn and soybeans may ease supply concerns despite acreage shifts.

China’s Zhoushan Port is set to receive 40 Brazilian soybean vessels in April, a 48% jump from last year, as Beijing pivots away from U.S. suppliers amid escalating trade tensions. State-affiliated media reported the port will unload 700,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans this month—up 32% year-on-year—reinforcing China’s accelerating shift toward alternative suppliers. Key Drivers:

European wheat markets staged a modest recovery Friday, with Euronext futures climbing from contract lows as traders speculated about renewed export demand, including potential French wheat sales to Egypt. However, the rebound was tempered by a flood of competitively priced Ukrainian new-crop offers, keeping bullish sentiment in check. Market Highlights Ukrainian Pressure Crop & Logistics […]

Ukraine’s 2025 grain planting is off to a sluggish start, with sowing 17% behind last year’s pace as freezing temperatures and snow in early April delayed fieldwork by at least a week, the agriculture ministry reported Friday. While moisture levels remain adequate, the slowdown raises risks for harvest volumes in one of the world’s key breadbaskets. Sowing […]

Ukrainian rapeseed prices are poised for a sharp increase as a smaller 2025 harvest and robust demand from European buyers and local processors create a supply crunch, according to the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC). Prices could climb 10%+ from current levels, reaching $540–560/ton CPT (Carriage Paid To) by late summer. Key Drivers Market Implications What’s Next?