Russian wheat export prices declined last week as the new crop season approaches, with analysts dismissing concerns of significant frost damage to yields. Benchmark 12.5% protein wheat traded at 247–250/tonFOB∗∗,down∗∗247–250/tonFOB∗∗,down∗∗2–3 from the prior week, while new-crop offers hovered near $234–235/ton.
Key Market Drivers:
- Export Volume: April shipments are estimated at 2.1–2.3M tons (vs. 4.6M tons in April 2024), with Turkey and Iran driving late-month demand.
- Holiday Slowdown: Trading is expected to remain subdued during Russia’s May Day (May 1–2) and Victory Day (May 8–9) holidays.
- Weather Impact: Analysts at IKAR and Sovecon see minimal crop damage from recent frosts, with dry conditions forecast for winter wheat regions this week.
Forward Outlook:
- 2024/25 & 2025/26 Exports: Sovecon revised estimates higher but sees no near-term export surge.
- Price Pressure: New-crop supplies and subdued global demand may keep prices soft in the short term.
Russian Wheat Prices Dip as New Crop Enters Market; Frost Damage Fears Ease