Energy

China has become the largest importer of Canadian crude shipped via the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, marking a dramatic shift in global oil flows driven by U.S. trade policies and Beijing’s push to diversify away from sanctioned Russian and Venezuelan supplies. Key Data & Shifts: Why China? Challenges Ahead:

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers are pushing forward with over 90 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new export capacity this year, undeterred by steel tariffs and trade war uncertainty, as they bet on long-term global demand for American gas. Key Projects Advancing in 2025: Trade War Headwinds: Market Outlook:

President Donald Trump declared Thursday that the U.S. is nearing a nuclear agreement with Iran, suggesting Tehran has “sort of” accepted terms, though Iranian officials insist key disputes remain unresolved. The prospect of a deal sent oil prices tumbling $2/barrel on expectations of sanctions easing. Key Developments: Market & Geopolitical Impact:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply raised its 2024 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd), predicting a 1.6 million bpd surge—driven by OPEC+’s accelerated output hikes—even as U.S. shale cuts and record EV sales temper demand growth. Key Forecasts: Market Risks:

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil shipments to China—the world’s top importer—will remain at a one-year high in June, holding steady at 48 million barrels, matching May’s elevated volumes, according to trade sources. The sustained supply follows OPEC+’s decision to ramp up production and Saudi Aramco’s competitive pricing strategy to retain market share. Key Details: Market Context:

President Donald Trump announced a major shift in U.S. Middle East policy during his Gulf tour, declaring an end to Syria sanctions and securing a 600billioneconomicanddefensepact∗∗withSaudiArabia—includinga∗∗600billioneconomicanddefensepact∗∗withSaudiArabia—includinga∗∗142 billion arms deal, the largest in U.S. history. Key Developments: Controversies & Context:

The Kremlin has confirmed that Russia and the U.S. are negotiating the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe, marking a potential geopolitical shift as Trump pushes for a Ukraine peace deal. Key Developments: Market & Political Impact:

The U.S. oilfield services sector is bracing for a sharp slowdown as plunging crude prices—driven by OPEC+ supply hikes and Trump’s trade war—force producers to slash drilling budgets, idle rigs, and delay projects. Key Developments: Trade War Toll:

Oil and gas drilling permits in Texas, the heart of U.S. crude production, collapsed to a four-year low in April as producers brace for a double whammy of rising OPEC+ output and Trump’s escalating trade war, which threaten to prolong the oil price slump. Key Data & Reactions: Market Pressures:

The U.S. sanctions on two Chinese “teapot” refiners—Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical (March) and Shandong Shengxing Chemical (April)—for buying Iranian crude have begun to disrupt operations, forcing them to reroute cargoes, secure financing from smaller banks, and sell products under different company names to evade restrictions. Key Impacts: Broader Fallout: