Metal

Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses surged 34% this week, snapping a three-week decline that had stoked concerns over shortages as global supplies were diverted to the U.S. ahead of potential Trump-era tariffs. Key Drivers: Market Implications:

A wave of copper imports has overwhelmed the U.S. market, collapsing the premium for tariff-hedged metal and draining global exchange stocks, as traders scramble to front-run President Trump’s pending decision on whether to impose 25% import duties. Key Market Shifts: Why It’s Happening:

Despite slumping demand from U.S.-China trade tensions, aluminium prices may find a floor thanks to China’s strict 45 million-ton annual production cap, analysts say. However, recession fears and tariff uncertainties could push prices to 2021 lows if global growth falters. Key Drivers: Price Outlook:

Despite the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) four-month cobalt export ban, Chinese smelters and battery makers remain well-supplied, with stockpiles lasting up to six months for large consumers, industry experts revealed at the Cobalt Congress 2025 in Singapore. However, a persistent global oversupply threatens to keep prices depressed long-term. Key Takeaways: Market Forecast:

China has issued its first batch of rare earth magnet export permits since imposing restrictions last month, approving shipments for at least four producers, including suppliers to Volkswagen, signaling a partial easing of its trade controls on critical materials. Key Developments: Why It Matters:

Ukraine has completed all legal procedures to implement a strategic minerals agreement with the U.S., a deal that grants Washington preferential access to Ukrainian critical minerals while establishing a bilateral investment fund for postwar reconstruction, Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced Tuesday. Key Provisions: Negotiation Backdrop:

Chinese metals giant Tsingshan insists it remains committed to Chile’s lithium sector, despite scrapping plans for a lithium cathode plant—a setback for the country’s ambitions to move up the EV battery supply chain. Key Developments: Why It Matters:

China’s near-total control of the global gallium market—a metal critical for semiconductors, defense tech, and next-gen electronics—has sent prices soaring to 14-year highs after Beijing restricted exports in 2023. Now, the U.S. and Europe are scrambling to break China’s dominance, turning to mining waste streams and reviving long-dormant refining techniques. Why Gallium Matters: The West’s Counterattack: China’s Next Move:

Shanghai copper inventories are poised for another sharp decline this week, traders say, exacerbating a supply squeeze that has already driven stockpiles down 60% in April—the steepest monthly drop on record. The shortage is fueling a price surge and deepening backwardation, with traders scrambling to redirect global supplies to China. Key Developments: Market Impact:

As the U.S. finalizes a critical minerals deal with Ukraine, it is quietly advancing a far more ambitious play in Africa’s Great Lakes region, where a potential peace agreement between Congo and Rwanda could unlock access to the world’s richest deposits of tin, tungsten, and coltan—and challenge China’s dominance in the global metals race. Key Developments: