Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco upgraded its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from $4.25, citing reduced trade tensions after the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause—while warning of a tighter global supply and slower-than-expected production growth.
Key Forecast Revisions
📈 Price Outlook:
- 2025 & 2026: $4.30/lb (vs. prior $4.25) on improved trade sentiment.
- Deficit Alert: 109K-ton shortfall in 2025; slight 19K-ton surplus in 2026.
📉 Supply Squeeze: - Global production growth slashed to 1.3% in 2025 (from 4.7%).
- Chile’s output growth trimmed to 3% annually (from 4.6% and 3.6%).
Drivers of Optimism
🔄 US-China Truce: Tariff pause “eased global trade tensions,” boosting demand hopes.
⚡ Energy Transition Demand: EVs, grids, and storage underpin long-term bullishness.
🏭 Chilean Rebound:
- Codelco’s output rose 5.2% in April (still below historic levels).
- Antofagasta also posted Q1 gains.
Risks Ahead
⚠️ Supply Fragility: “Any disruption will directly spike prices,” Cochilco warned.
⛏️ Chile’s Challenges:
- Water shortages, declining ore grades, and investment delays curb growth.
- 2026 target: 5.84M tons (still below pre-2020 peaks).
What’s Next?
- Tariff Watch: Will the US-China détente hold beyond 90 days?
- Deficit Dynamics: Persistent shortages could push prices toward $4.50/lb.
- Codelco’s Comeback: Can the world’s top miner sustain its April rebound?
Chile’s Cochilco Raises Copper Price Forecast to $4.30/lb as US-China Tariff Truce Eases Supply Fears