European wheat markets staged a modest recovery Friday, with Euronext futures climbing from contract lows as traders speculated about renewed export demand, including potential French wheat sales to Egypt. However, the rebound was tempered by a flood of competitively priced Ukrainian new-crop offers, keeping bullish sentiment in check.
Market Highlights
- Price Rebound: September wheat futures (BL2U5) rose 0.8% to €209.75/ton, recovering from Thursday’s contract low of €206.25.
- Export Chatter: Unconfirmed reports suggested French wheat may have been sold to Egypt for May shipment, though traders remained cautious after previous rumors failed to materialize.
- Currency Boost: A weaker euro (EUR=) from recent highs improved EU wheat’s competitiveness in global markets.
Ukrainian Pressure
- New-Crop Discounts: Ukrainian feed wheat for 2025 delivery was offered as low as €198/ton to the Netherlands, undercutting EU prices.
- Improved Weather: Warmer conditions in Ukraine accelerated fieldwork, raising expectations for ample Black Sea supplies.
Crop & Logistics Update
- France: Wheat conditions dipped slightly (FranceAgriMer), but recent rains may stabilize yields.
- Germany: Rising Rhine water levels eased barge transport constraints.
Outlook
- Short-Term: Prices may extend gains if Egypt confirms EU purchases.
- Long-Term: Northern hemisphere harvest prospects and Ukraine’s export pace remain key hurdles.
Why It Matters:
- Farmers: Price recovery offers relief after steep declines, but Ukraine’s cheap supplies threaten margins.
- Traders: Egypt’s next tender will test whether EU wheat can reclaim market share.
- Global Balance: Rising Ukrainian exports could prolong global wheat price pressure.
EU Wheat Rebounds from Lows as Export Hopes Revive; Ukraine Pressure Persists