Ukraine’s 2025 grain planting is off to a sluggish start, with sowing 17% behind last year’s pace as freezing temperatures and snow in early April delayed fieldwork by at least a week, the agriculture ministry reported Friday. While moisture levels remain adequate, the slowdown raises risks for harvest volumes in one of the world’s key breadbaskets.
Sowing Snapshot (as of April 24)
| Crop | Area Sown (ha) | Key Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Spring Barley | 702,100 | ▼ vs. 2024 |
| Corn | 705,000 | Critical for export |
| Sunflower | 1.24M | ▲ 14% harvest growth expected |
| Soybeans | 187,600 | ▼ 10–13% area drop forecast |
| Sugar Beet | 228,500 | Exceeds union forecast (210K ha) |
Weather Woes
- Cold Snap: Early April temperatures 2–4°C below normal stalled planting.
- Soil Moisture: Currently sufficient, but May-June rains will dictate yields.
Crop-Specific Outlook
- Soybeans:
- Area may shrink 10–13% (to 2.3–2.35M ha) due to low prices post-record 2024 harvest.
- Harvest forecast: 5.8–6.2M tons (hinges on summer rains).
- Sunflower:
- 2025 harvest could jump 14% to 15.2M tons on expanded planting.
- Oil output: 6.54M tons (+14%).
- Sugar Beet:
- Sown area (228.5K ha) beats industry forecasts (210K ha).
- 2025 sugar output: 1.5M tons (▼16% YoY); exports to plunge 75% to 180.5K tons.
Why It Matters
- Global Grain Supply: Ukraine accounts for 10% of world wheat exports and 15% of corn. Delays could tighten stocks.
- Farmer Economics: Soybean price drops may push growers toward sunflower and corn.
- War Resilience: Despite frontline fighting, Ukraine’s ag sector remains a lifeline for GDP.
What’s Next?
- Catch-Up Planting: Warmer May weather could accelerate sowing.
- Yield Watch: Moisture levels in critical May-June period will make or break harvests.
- Export Dynamics: Sunflower oil gains may offset weaker grain volumes.
Key Quotes:
- Taras Vysotskiy (Deputy Ag Minister): “Cold weather set us back a week, but soil moisture is optimal.”
- APK-Inform: “Soybean area will shrink, but sunflower is the new star.”
Data Point: Ukraine’s 2024 grain harvest hit 82M tons—25% above wartime 2022.
Ukraine’s Grain Sowing Lags 17% as Cold Snap Delays Planting; Sunflower, Sugar Beat Expectations