Brazil, the world’s top sugar supplier, is poised to produce a record 45.9 million metric tons of sugar in 2025/26, a 4% increase from the previous season, even as its sugarcane crop shrinks due to adverse weather, according to state agency Conab.
Key Highlights:
- Sugarcane Decline: Total cane crushing is projected at 663.4 million tons (down 2% YoY), with yields dropping 2.3% due to unfavorable weather during crop development.
- Sugar Over Ethanol: Mills are prioritizing sugar production, capitalizing on its “high competitiveness” in global markets, while sugarcane-based ethanol output falls 4.2% to 28.1 billion liters.
- Corn Ethanol Surge: A 11% jump in corn-based ethanol (to 8.7 billion liters) will partially offset the cane biofuel slump, keeping total ethanol production nearly flat (-1% YoY).
- Expanded Cultivation: Sugarcane area grows 0.3% to 8.79 million hectares, but lower yields limit overall supply.
Brazil Set for Record Sugar Output in 2025/26 Despite Smaller Sugarcane Crop, Says Conab