Energy

The U.S. energy market faced a bearish surprise this week as government data revealed unexpected builds in crude oil and fuel inventories, driven by rising imports and softening demand—a combination that sent oil futures tumbling and raised questions about near-term market balance. Key Data Points (EIA Report) 🛢️ Crude Stocks: Rose by 1.3M barrels (vs. expected 1.3M-barrel draw), reaching 443.2M barrels.⛽ Gasoline Inventories: Increased by 816K […]

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter, is expected to burn more oil for electricity this summer—up to 470,000 bpd, a 3% rise from 2024—as high fuel oil prices and OPEC+’s supply boost make crude a cheaper alternative, analysts say. The move could partially offset fears of a global oil surplus after the cartel agreed to raise output by nearly 1M […]

Kazakhstan’s crude oil production (excluding condensate) rose to 1.86M bpd in early May—a 2% increase from April—further breaching its OPEC+ quota of 1.486M bpd, according to an industry source. The uptick highlights the growing tension between Kazakhstan and the OPEC+ alliance, which has threatened to accelerate output hikes to punish non-compliant members. Why Kazakhstan Keeps Overproducing OPEC+’s Growing Frustration Market & Geopolitical Implications

Brazil’s environmental regulator Ibama has approved Petrobras’ emergency response plan for potential oil spills in the Foz do Amazonas basin, marking a critical step toward granting the state-run firm a license to drill in the ecologically sensitive offshore zone. The decision allows Petrobras to conduct a live simulation of its spill containment strategy—the final regulatory hurdle before Ibama rules on the drilling permit. The basin, located in Brazil’s Equatorial […]

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced it will resume approving or rejecting pending LNG export permits to non-free trade agreement countries, following the completion of a final environmental and economic impact study. The move ends a 2024 pause imposed by the Biden administration, which sought to assess whether expanding LNG shipments could raise domestic gas prices or harm climate goals. The U.S., […]

China has become the largest importer of Canadian crude shipped via the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, marking a dramatic shift in global oil flows driven by U.S. trade policies and Beijing’s push to diversify away from sanctioned Russian and Venezuelan supplies. Key Data & Shifts: Why China? Challenges Ahead:

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers are pushing forward with over 90 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new export capacity this year, undeterred by steel tariffs and trade war uncertainty, as they bet on long-term global demand for American gas. Key Projects Advancing in 2025: Trade War Headwinds: Market Outlook:

President Donald Trump declared Thursday that the U.S. is nearing a nuclear agreement with Iran, suggesting Tehran has “sort of” accepted terms, though Iranian officials insist key disputes remain unresolved. The prospect of a deal sent oil prices tumbling $2/barrel on expectations of sanctions easing. Key Developments: Market & Geopolitical Impact:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply raised its 2024 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd), predicting a 1.6 million bpd surge—driven by OPEC+’s accelerated output hikes—even as U.S. shale cuts and record EV sales temper demand growth. Key Forecasts: Market Risks:

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil shipments to China—the world’s top importer—will remain at a one-year high in June, holding steady at 48 million barrels, matching May’s elevated volumes, according to trade sources. The sustained supply follows OPEC+’s decision to ramp up production and Saudi Aramco’s competitive pricing strategy to retain market share. Key Details: Market Context: