The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply raised its 2024 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd), predicting a 1.6 million bpd surge—driven by OPEC+’s accelerated output hikes—even as U.S. shale cuts and record EV sales temper demand growth.
Key Forecasts:
- Supply Surge: OPEC+’s June production boost (411K bpd) and Saudi spare capacity push global supply higher, widening the 2024 surplus to 730K bpd.
- Demand Slowdown: Growth will decelerate to 650K bpd in H2 2024 (from 990K bpd in Q1), with EVs displacing 1.3M bpd of oil demand this year.
- Shale Retreat: U.S. output forecasts slashed by 40K bpd (2025) and 190K bpd (2026) as prices hover near 4-year lows.
- Russia’s Squeeze: April oil revenues fell to $13.2B (lowest since 2023) despite higher production and exports.
Market Risks:
- OPEC+ Strategy: Saudi-led supply hikes risk prolonging the price slump, pressuring shale and Russian budgets.
- EV Acceleration: 14M EV sales in China (2025) and global adoption curb long-term oil demand.
IEA Warns of Oil Glut as OPEC+ Floods Market, While EV Boom and Shale Cuts Reshape Demand