Kazakhstan’s crude oil production (excluding condensate) rose to 1.86M bpd in early May—a 2% increase from April—further breaching its OPEC+ quota of 1.486M bpd, according to an industry source. The uptick highlights the growing tension between Kazakhstan and the OPEC+ alliance, which has threatened to accelerate output hikes to punish non-compliant members.
Why Kazakhstan Keeps Overproducing
- Western Oil Majors Resist Cuts: Projects like Tengiz (Chevron-operated) and Kashagan (ExxonMobil, Shell, Eni) face contractual hurdles to reducing output.
- Quota Defiance: Kazakhstan has exceeded its OPEC+ limits for months, including a 3% overproduction in April.
- National Priorities: The government insists it will balance OPEC+ commitments with domestic economic needs, vowing to offset excess production by 2026.
OPEC+’s Growing Frustration
- The cartel may fast-track supply increases to pressure non-compliant members, risking lower global oil prices.
- Kazakhstan’s energy ministry claims it’s taking “all measures” to comply but admits Tengiz has hit planned output, limiting further growth.
Market & Geopolitical Implications
- Price Risks: Kazakhstan’s defiance could undermine OPEC+’s market control, adding bearish pressure to crude.
- Investor Watch: Analysts expect output to stabilize near 1.8M bpd, as international firms resist output cuts.
Kazakhstan Defies OPEC+ Again: Oil Output Rises 2% in May Amid Quota Dispute