China has become the largest importer of Canadian crude shipped via the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, marking a dramatic shift in global oil flows driven by U.S. trade policies and Beijing’s push to diversify away from sanctioned Russian and Venezuelan supplies.
Key Data & Shifts:
- China’s Imports: 207,000 bpd via TMX since June 2024 (vs. 7,000 bpd pre-expansion).
- U.S. Volumes: 173,000 bpd—below expectations as Trump’s tariffs strain Canada-U.S. ties.
- Global Diversification: Canada’s non-U.S. crude exports surged 60% in 2024, reaching 183,000 bpd to Asia (South Korea, Japan, India).
Why China?
- Trade War Fallout: Trump’s threats to annex Canada and past crude tariffs pushed Ottawa to seek Asian markets.
- Sanction Avoidance: Chinese refiners wary of over-reliance on Russian and Venezuelan oil amid U.S. sanctions.
- Pipeline Access: TMX’s 890,000 bpd capacity (tripled post-expansion) enables Pacific exports.
Challenges Ahead:
- TMX Utilization: Currently 77% full (below 83% forecast) due to high tolls from cost overruns.
- Future Expansion: Operator eyes 200,000–300,000 bpd capacity boost, likely favoring Asia-bound shipments.
China Overtakes U.S. as Top Buyer of Canadian Crude on Trans Mountain Pipeline Amid Trade War