U.S. Farmers Say Brazil Still Dominates China’s Soy Market Despite Trade Truce

While the U.S.-China tariff truce has eased tensions, American farmers warn that Brazil’s competitive edge—lower prices, zero tariffs, and a record soy harvest—will continue to dominate China’s imports, leaving little room for a U.S. comeback.

Key Challenges for U.S. Soy:

• Tariff Disadvantage: Even with reduced duties, U.S. soy faces a 10% tariff in China, while Brazilian soy enters tariff-free.
• Brazil’s Supply Glut: A bumper crop ensures cheaper, abundant supplies for China, which already buys ~70% of its soy from Brazil.
• Limited Chinese Demand: Buyers are expected to purchase only essential volumes from the U.S., avoiding long-term commitments due to trade uncertainty.

Market Realities:

• U.S. Soy Futures (Sv1) rose to a 3-month high on truce hopes, but farmers remain skeptical.
• Brazilian Export Premiums Fell, reinforcing its cost advantage.
• Other U.S. Agri-Exports Struggle:
  • Pork still faces 57%+ tariffs.
  • Wheat loses out to Australian/Canadian supplies.

Farmer Sentiment:

• “The tariff that remains is far from inconsequential.” — Caleb Ragland, American Soybean Association
• “If South America is short… they’ll buy from us.” — Dan Henebry, Illinois farmer
• “We’re right back at the plate, hoping for a home run.” — Ron Heck, Iowa farmer