Brazil, the world’s top sugar exporter, is expected to ship 35.1 million metric tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season—matching last year’s near-record volume—as mills continue favoring sugar production over ethanol despite a slight dip in cane supplies, according to JOB Economics.
Key Highlights:
- Stable Exports: Projected shipments mirror 2024/25’s 35.1M tons, maintaining Brazil’s 50%+ share of global sugar trade.
- Production Boost: Sugar output may rise 5% to 46M tons (vs. 2024/25), nearing the 2023/24 record of 46.1M tons, as mills allocate more cane to sugar (vs. ethanol).
- Cane Supply Dip: Total sugarcane crush could fall 1.45% to 673M tons due to weather or aging crops, but higher sucrose diversion offsets the decline.
Market Impact:
- Price Influence: Brazil’s export dominance allows it to sway global sugar prices, which recently rebounded from multi-year lows.
- Ethanol Trade-Off: Strong sugar margins continue to limit biofuel production, tightening ethanol supplies domestically.
Brazil’s 2025/26 Sugar Exports to Stay Near Record Highs as Mills Prioritize Sweetener Over Ethanol