US Soy and Corn Output Drops Due to Dry Crop Weather, Yet Supplies Stay Ample

The Department of Agriculture announced on Friday that U.S. farmers produced less soybeans and corn this year than initially anticipated. A dry spell had a negative impact on the crops, but despite the reduced output, supplies remain substantial.
Growers are now estimated to have achieved the second-largest soy harvest in U.S. history. Crop losses prevented them from reaching a record, and they also had the third-largest corn harvest. End-of-season supplies for both crops are still projected to hit five-year highs, which is beneficial for users such as livestock producers who feed grain to farm animals.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures (Sv1) reached a one-month peak as the harvest outlook did not meet traders’ expectations. However, the market trimmed its gains due to concerns regarding demand.
Prices have been hovering near 2020 lows, pressured by large supplies and intense export competition from Brazil, the world’s leading soy supplier. Additionally, concerns about trade tensions with top importer China after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January have further kept prices down.
The USDA estimated soy production at 4.461 billion bushels, with an average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre (bpa), which is lower than its October estimates of 4.582 billion bushels with yields at 53.1 bpa.
Farmers discovered lower-than-expected yields while harvesting crops at a rapid pace after experiencing late-season dryness.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, an analyst for Summit Commodity Brokerage in Iowa, said, “That dry period there in August and September really put a dinger on a lot of soybeans finishing up.”
The corn harvest was 15.143 billion bushels, with an average yield of 183.1 bpa, compared to the USDA’s October estimates of 15.203 billion bushels and yields of 183.8 bpa, as stated in the agency’s monthly report.
According to a Reuters poll, analysts had expected smaller reductions in production and yields.
The USDA estimated 2024-25 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 470 million bushels, down from 550 million in October, and corn stocks at 1.938 billion bushels, down from 1.999 billion last month.
StoneX broker Craig Turner said, “We’re now adequately supplied for corn, rather than burdensomely supplied.”