Analysts have noted that drier weather in western Europe has accelerated the sowing campaign, potentially preventing a recurrence of one of the worst harvests witnessed this year.
Field work has recommenced in most areas of the bloc over the past two weeks due to the drier conditions, and this trend is anticipated to persist for the next 10 days. The warm conditions are expected to foster crop development.
However, sowing delays have already affected the potential of the crops.
Strategie Grains crop analyst Vincent Braak stated, “It won’t be a good year, that’s pretty much certain.”
In France, the EU’s largest soft wheat producer by far, farmers had sown only 62% of the expected soft wheat area by Monday, compared to 41% a week earlier, as reported by farm office FranceAgriMer on Friday. This is in contrast to 65% at the same stage last year and a five-year average of 77%.
Braak further explained, “It has been complicated for farmers in many parts of Europe to find the optimal window for sowing because of the irregular rainfall, sometimes far too wet, sometimes far too dry.”
While Strategie Grains has yet to provide detailed EU grain production forecasts for 2025, Braak anticipates that soft wheat output will be approximately 1% above the 10-year average, assuming there are no setbacks before harvest. He also expects soft wheat sowings to be 5% above the rain-hit crop last year, reaching 21.45 million hectares.
Even with favorable weather conditions until harvest, Braak does not expect yields to be very good. He cites poor implementation after sowing in some countries and the tendency of revenue-hit farmers to cut costs on crop protection and fertilisers.
Germany, Poland and UK Also Wet
In Germany, which also endured a wet September and early October, an analyst said that farmers still expected to sow all the winter grains and rapeseed they had planned. The soft wheat area remained within an average range.
The analyst commented, “Overall, Germany is not experiencing the problems feared following rain in France, and overall German planting has progressed well. There have been local difficulties, but not on the serious scale seen last year.”
He estimated that German farmers will sow about 2.7 – 2.8 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2025 crop, up from a rain-reduced 2.7 million hectares last season.
In the UK, similar to Germany, drier weather in late October and early November enabled farmers to catch up with winter crop sowings.
In Poland, the EU’s third-largest wheat producer, the crop condition was generally satisfactory, according to Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.
He said, “Very quick maize harvesting this year was conducive to winter crop planting for the 2025 harvest.”
Regarding rapeseed crops, which were sown in the summer, they were developing well in the two largest producers, France and Germany, analysts said. September flooding in southern Poland meant that some rapeseed needed replanting, but the area is not seen as significant nationally.
West Europe’s Sowing Resumes Amid Drier Weather, But Delays Have Impacted Wheat Crop Potential