U.S. Farm Exports Face Uncertain 2025 as Soybeans, Wheat Struggle Against Global Competition

U.S. agricultural exporters are off to a sluggish start for the 2025-26 season, with soybean, wheat, and cotton sales hovering near decade lows, while corn and soybean oil buck the trend. The mixed performance reflects intensifying global competition, geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade patterns—setting the stage for a high-stakes battle to retain market share.

By the Numbers: 2025-26 Export Snapshot

Commodity	Sales to Date (2025-26)	Historical Context	Key Challenge
Soybeans	460K tons	18-year low	Brazil’s record crop, delayed China purchases
Corn	<2M tons	2nd lowest since 2012	Late-season buying trend could salvage volumes
Wheat	1.45M tons	3rd lowest since 2012	Need strong June sales to match 2024’s rebound
Cotton	1.1M bales	9-year low	China’s 30% share at risk amid trade strains
Soybean Oil	11.8K tons	Record high (but tiny)	Competing veg oil prices boost demand

Key Takeaways:

1. Soybeans in Crisis:
   • Brazil’s dominance: Its delayed harvest may further squeeze U.S. export windows.
   • China’s silence: Zero new-crop sales to top buyer signal reliance on South America.
2. Corn’s Silver Lining:
   • Strong 2024-25 shipments (2nd-best ever) show latent demand, but 2025-26 hinges on late-summer purchases.
3. Wheat & Cotton Woes:
   • Wheat needs a June surge to avoid back-to-back weak years.
   • Cotton’s 18% export rebound forecast (per USDA) seems optimistic given China tensions.
4. Bright Spots:
   • Soybean oil: Record early sales amid global veg oil shortages.
   • Soybean meal: Processing boom drives 2024-25 records, but 2025-26 bookings lag.

Geopolitical Wildcards

• U.S.-China tensions: Tariff threats and export controls loom over sorghum, cotton.
• Brazil’s expansion: Now supplies 50%+ of global soybeans, undercutting U.S. prices.
• Dollar strength: Makes U.S. crops costlier vs. Black Sea wheat or Argentine soy.

What’s Next?

• Make-or-break periods:
  • Soybeans: July-August (China’s traditional buying window).
  • Corn: Late summer (ethanol demand, feed use).
• USDA reports: May-June forecasts will set tone for harvest expectations.
• Policy shifts: Trump’s proposed ag tariffs could further disrupt trade flows.