The Ukrainian grain traders union UGA has reduced its combined grain and oilseeds crop forecast for 2024 by 2.8 million metric tons to a total of 71.8 million tons, primarily due to a heatwave affecting the region. The forecast includes:
Corn: 23.4 million tons
Wheat: 19.8 million tons
Barley: 4.95 million tons
Sunseed: 12.8 million tons
Soybeans: 4.8 million tons
Rapeseed: 4.3 million tons
UGA attributed the downgrade to hot and dry weather in July, which negatively impacted the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds. The union has also revised the 2024/25 export outlook downward by 2.5 million tons to 41 million tons, compared to 57.5 million tons exported in the 2023/24 period.
The expected wheat exports are projected at 13 million tons, while corn exports are estimated at 18.5 million tons. This is a decrease from the previous year’s exports of 16 million tons of wheat and 26 million tons of corn.
Ukrainian state weather forecasters predict that the harvest of late crops could decline by 20-30% in central, southern, and eastern regions due to the ongoing heat. The acting farm minister has indicated that late crop yields might fall by up to 15% in most areas.