Consultancy Strategie Grains has cut its forecast for this year’s rapeseed output in the European Union by 180,000 metric tons to 17.94 million tons, which is now 10% below last year’s harvest. The downward revision is due to wet weather in France, the EU’s largest rapeseed grower, and late frosts in central European countries.
Heavy rains in France since the autumn have delayed sowings, flooded fields, and are hurting grain quality. While the late frosts recorded in April were not expected to have as much of a negative impact in France as in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
According to Strategie Grains, “The crops (in France) are mainly penalized by the frequency of rainfall and the waterlogging of fields,” adding that some fields will need to be replanted.
In contrast, conditions in Germany, the second-largest rapeseed producer, were satisfactory for flowering with average temperatures close to seasonal norms.
The consultancy noted that the rapeseed balance would be tight next season due to the anticipated fall in output and low carry-in stocks, which would only be partly offset by higher imports from third countries, mainly from Ukraine and Australia.
Strategie Grains also slightly lowered its projection for the EU sunflower harvest in 2024 to 10.72 million tons, down from 10.75 million previously, but still 10% above 2023. Its soybean output forecast was slightly cut to 3.06 million tons, from 3.11 million earlier, up about 5% from last year’s 2.9 million tons.
The reduction in the EU’s rapeseed crop forecast is a significant development, as rapeseed is a crucial oilseed crop used for both food and biofuel production. The tight supply situation could have implications for global vegetable oil markets and the European Union’s efforts to reduce its reliance on imported oilseeds.