According to analysts at Rabobank, Australia’s 2024/25 wheat harvest is expected to be slightly bigger than last year’s, thanks to an increase in the planted area. However, the country’s barley and canola outputs are likely to fall compared to the previous season.
Rabobank’s projections indicate that Australia will harvest 27.4 million metric tons of wheat in the 2024/25 cropping season, up 5.7% from 2023/24. In contrast, barley production is forecast to decline by 7.2% to 10 million tons, and canola output is expected to drop by 11.4% to 5 million tons.
The bank’s forecast for wheat and canola harvests is roughly in line with the average of the last five years, but barley production is expected to be around 2 million tons below that average.
Rabobank noted that as planting wraps up, Australia’s eastern cropping regions have plentiful moisture, but the west, south, and southeast have been drier. However, the bank assumed a mid-to-late season recovery for the dry regions as a La Nina weather event is predicted to bring increased rainfall.
The analysts said that Australia’s area planted to wheat is set to rise by 961,000 hectares to 13.48 million hectares (33.3 million acres), with barley area increasing by 210,000 hectares to 4.33 million hectares and canola area shrinking by 450,000 hectares to 3.11 million hectares. These wheat and canola areas are 5% to 7% higher than the five-year average, while barley is around 10% lower.
Rabobank also mentioned that Western Australia’s cropping area will rise despite its dry start, and Queensland’s area should surge by nearly one-third, with the amount of land planted to wheat growing to its largest on record.
The bank’s forecast comes as global wheat supply has been affected by crop losses in Russia, which has pushed benchmark Chicago wheat futures to 10-month highs. Australia is a major exporter of wheat, barley, and canola, and the changes in its production will have an impact on global markets.
The Australian government’s agriculture ministry is expected to release its quarterly crop report with its own expectations for production on Tuesday.