The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has revised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee crop, projecting a total production of 66.4 million bags, a decrease from the previous estimate of 69.9 million bags. This adjustment reflects the impact of adverse weather conditions that have affected the main coffee-producing regions.
Key Highlights:
Production Growth: The forecasted production of 66.4 million bags represents a 0.2% increase compared to the previous season. However, this growth is modest given the challenges faced.
Robusta vs. Arabica: The decline in overall production is primarily attributed to a reduction in robusta coffee output. Conversely, there is a slight increase in the expected production of arabica, which constitutes the majority of Brazil’s coffee harvest.
Export Performance: Despite the production challenges, coffee exports from Brazil in 2024 have reached record highs. The country has successfully expanded its share of the global coffee market, filling the void left by other major producers, such as Vietnam and Indonesia.