EU Reimposes Ukrainian Grain Quotas, Offering Modest Relief to Farmers Amid Global Price Pressures

1. Policy Shift & Immediate Impact
The European Union reinstated pre-war trade quotas on Ukrainian wheat and barley Friday, ending three years of unrestricted access granted after Russia’s invasion. The move provides modest relief to EU farmers grappling with:

• Annual duty-free quotas: 1 million tons for wheat, 350,000 tons for barley;
• 2025 adjusted volumes: 583K tons wheat / 204K tons barley for remaining months;
• Price pressure: EU wheat prices near production-cost breakeven due to Ukrainian competition.

2. Farmer Reactions & Market Realities
While French wheat union AGPB called it a “crucial first step,” traders warn benefits may be limited:

• Global oversupply: Ukrainian grain excluded from EU will flood other markets (e.g., North Africa, Southeast Asia);
• Structural challenges: High EU energy/fertilizer costs persist, compounded by impending Mercosur trade deal risks.

3. Ukraine’s Pivot Strategy
First Deputy Farm Minister Taras Vysotskiy confirmed redirection plans:

“We’ll target 2021 markets—logistics are ready, but price competitiveness is key.”

• Corn exemption: Zero EU tariffs remain (650K-ton annual quota unaffected);
• Wheat/barley uncertainty: Trade rep Taras Kachka cited “market tensions” but expects negotiated solutions.

4. Future Framework
The EU and Ukraine are negotiating a long-term trade accord, with quotas likely set between pre-war levels and waiver volumes.