Tunisia’s Grain Harvest to Surge 64% to 1.8M Tons, Easing Import Reliance Amid Financial Crisis

Tunisia expects its 2024 grain harvest to reach 1.8 million metric tons—a 64% increase from last year’s drought-stricken output—marking the country’s strongest season in five years and providing critical relief as it battles a severe financial crisis, Agriculture Minister Ezzedine Ben Cheikh announced Wednesday.

Key Drivers

🌧️ Rainfall Revival:

• Improved precipitation in key farming regions reversed consecutive dry years.
• Last year’s harvest: 1.1M tons (far below annual demand of 3.4M tons).
  💰 Economic Lifeline:
• Reduces reliance on costly wheat imports amid soaring global prices.
• Tunisia’s foreign reserves crisis had strained food procurement.

Broader Context

📉 Decadal Averages:

• Pre-drought norm: ~1.5M tons/year (vs. 3.4M tons consumed).
• 2024 rebound still leaves a ~1.6M-ton deficit, requiring imports.
  🌍 Regional Impact:
• North Africa’s agricultural recovery mirrors gains in Morocco, Algeria.
• Global wheat prices remain elevated due to Ukraine war, climate shocks.

Challenges Ahead

💸 Financial Strain:

• Tunisia’s IMF bailout talks stall; food subsidies drain budgets.
  🌾 Long-Term Gaps:
• Even with the surge, domestic production covers only ~53% of needs.

What’s Next?

• Import Cuts: Likely to reduce purchases from Russia, Ukraine, France.
• Farm Investment: Govt under pressure to boost irrigation resilience.
• Market Watch: Will global price dips offset Tunisia’s import needs?