Ukrainian rapeseed prices are poised for a sharp increase as a smaller 2025 harvest and robust demand from European buyers and local processors create a supply crunch, according to the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC). Prices could climb 10%+ from current levels, reaching $540–560/ton CPT (Carriage Paid To) by late summer.
Key Drivers
- Lower Production:
- 2025 harvest forecast: 3.4M tons (↓8% from 2024’s 3.7M tons) due to reduced sowing area and poor weather.
- Exports to drop: 2.72M tons expected in 2025/26 (vs. 3.14M tons in 2024/25), per APK-Inform.
- Strong Demand:
- Exporters vs. processors: Local crushers offer 535–545/ton∗∗,outpacingexportbidsat∗∗535–545/ton∗∗,outpacingexportbidsat∗∗510–515 for July-August delivery.
- EU reliance: Ukraine supplies 80%+ of Europe’s rapeseed imports, keeping demand firm despite higher prices.
- Farmer Caution:
- Most sales will be spot-based, as growers avoid forward contracts amid price volatility and war risks.
Market Implications
- Food vs. Fuel: Tight supply could strain EU biodiesel production, which relies on Ukrainian rapeseed oil.
- Price Floor: With domestic consumption rising to 679K tons (↑21% YoY), competition will intensify.
- Global Ripple: Higher Ukrainian prices may lift Canadian/Australian rapeseed values.
What’s Next?
- July Harvest: Early yield data will confirm (or ease) supply fears.
- EU Policy Watch: Potential adjustments to biofuel mandates if rapeseed shortages persist.
- Farmer Strategy: If prices near $560/ton, growers may hold back supply for even higher premiums.
Ukraine Rapeseed Prices Set to Surge as Tight Supply Meets Strong Demand