Soybean futures jumped to a two-month peak Wednesday as markets bet on easing U.S.-China trade tensions after President Trump hinted at lowering tariffs and dismissed rumors of firing Fed Chair Powell. The rally contrasted with declines in corn and wheat, which faced pressure from ideal U.S. planting conditions and sluggish global demand.
Market Movers
- Soybeans (CBOT Sv1): Rose 0.4% to $10.50¼/bushel, hitting a February 24 high intraday.
- Corn (Cv1): Fell 0.8% to $4.79¼/bushel on forecasts for dry Midwest weather, accelerating planting.
- Wheat (Wv1): Dropped 1.2% to $5.43½/bushel as global import tenders slowed.
Trade War Optimism
- Trump’s signals of tariff reductions and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s prediction of a “de-escalation” fueled hopes for revived China soybean imports (though analysts note Beijing’s 2024 buying is likely complete).
- Reality Check: Marex’s Terry Reilly warned any deal would be a “slog”, with China still reliant on Brazilian soybeans.
Weather Watch
- Corn Boost: Drier Midwest forecasts may allow rapid planting progress, capping price gains.
- Wheat Woes: U.S. Plains rains eased crop stress, while Black Sea showers improved soil moisture for winter wheat.
What’s Next?
- Tariff Clarity: Further Trump comments or U.S.-China talks could extend soybean’s rally.
- Planting Pace: USDA’s next crop progress report (Monday) will test corn’s bearish weather thesis.
- Global Demand: Wheat needs fresh import tenders to reverse its slide.
Soybeans Hit 2-Month High as Trump Tariff Signals Boost Trade Hopes