Copper prices extended their collapse Wednesday, with Chinese futures hitting eight-month lows as Beijing’s retaliatory 84% tariffs on U.S. goods crushed hopes for a trade war détente. The selloff spread across base metals, with tin plunging 11% on supply resumptions.
Key Price Moves (May 15):
🔴 LME Copper (CMC3): $8,631/ton (-20% from March peak)
🔴 SHFE Copper: 72,130 yuan ($9,814/ton), lowest since August 2024
⚡ Tin (CMSN3): $29,715/ton (-11% after Congo mine restart)
Aluminum/Nickel: Down 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively
Why It’s Happening:
Trade War Escalation:
China’s 84% tariffs (up from 34%) target U.S. goods, spooking industrial demand.
Goldman Sachs slashes Q3 copper forecast to $8,300/ton, citing recession risks.
Physical Demand Flickers:
Yangshan copper premiums doubled since February to $87/ton, signaling Chinese bargain-hunting.
But traders warn: “This is a falling knife—no one’s catching it yet.”
Tin’s Supply Shock:
Alphamin Resources’ Congo mine restart flooded markets, triggering a double-digit crash.
What’s Next?
Copper’s Technical Floor: Watch $8,300 (Goldman’s target) for potential capitulation.
Tariff Domino Effect: If U.S. responds, aluminum/zinc could face renewed pressure.
China’s Stimulus Watch: Weak metals may force Beijing to boost infrastructure spending.