Russian wheat export prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, driven by declining shipments as an export quota came into effect. Analysts report that the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in March increased by $2 from the previous week, reaching $247 per metric ton.
Key Highlights:
Price Trends:
Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, attributed the price rise primarily to a significant reduction in wheat supply.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for similar wheat at between $242 and $246 per ton, slightly up from $241 to $245 the previous week.
Export Quota Impact:
Russia’s export quota took effect on February 15, contributing to the tightening of supply.
Despite rising prices, exporters are experiencing low margins, necessitating higher FOB prices for profitability.
Weather Effects:
Adverse weather conditions at ports have directly impacted shipment volumes.
Concerns about weather risks affecting both U.S. and Russian crops have contributed to increased prices in global markets.
Forecast Adjustments:
The IKAR consultancy has revised its 2025 grain crop forecast for Russia down to 129 million metric tons, citing risks from approaching frosts for winter crops.
A significant drop in nighttime temperatures is expected in key winter wheat-producing regions.
Export Estimates:
Weekly grain exports were estimated at 0.53 million tons, including 0.46 million tons of wheat, a decrease from 0.66 million tons the previous week.
February wheat exports are projected at 2.0 million tons, significantly lower than 4.1 million tons a year earlier.
IKAR also revised its February wheat export estimate down to 1.6-1.8 million tons due to poor weather conditions at Black Sea ports.
Rail Freight Adjustments:
Rail freight operator Rusagrotrans lowered its February wheat export estimate to 2.2-2.3 million tons, down from 2.4-2.5 million tons.