At least three vessels carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Oman and Australia are making their way westward, with one passing through the Red Sea, according to ship tracking data. This movement is driven by increased demand and higher prices in Europe as the continent looks to replace piped Russian gas following the expiration of the Ukraine transit deal on January 1.
Key Highlights:
Vessel Movements:
Two tankers loaded at Qalhat, Oman, are en route to Europe, marking the first shipments from Oman since July 2023.
The Greenergy Pearl, loaded between February 1 and 3, is headed to the Fos Cavaou LNG terminal in France.
The Salalah LNG vessel, loaded between February 4 and 5, is bound for the Marmara Erglisi LNG terminal in Turkey, having passed through the Gulf of Aden and now navigating the Red Sea.
Market Dynamics:
Kpler analyst Go Katayama noted that flexible volumes from Oman and Qatar may continue to flow to Europe, particularly in a high TTF (Dutch Title Transfer Facility) market.
However, the number of vessels using the Bab al-Mandab strait may remain limited due to geopolitical risks, as many shipping companies previously rerouted vessels around Africa to avoid potential Houthi attacks.
Geopolitical Context:
The Iran-aligned Houthis have conducted over 100 attacks on ships since November 2023, sinking two vessels. They stated they would limit attacks on commercial vessels to those linked to Israel if the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.
Australian LNG Shipment:
An LNG vessel, the Elisa Ardea, departed from Wheatstone, Australia, on February 5-6 and is set to arrive at Dunkirk, France, on March 7-8. This marks a rare Australian cargo heading to Europe, the first since the Woodside Rees Withers delivered a shipment to Rotterdam in November 2022.
However, analysts do not anticipate further Australian LNG shipments to Europe, as the vessel is likely being repositioned for U.S. shipments.