The Brazilian crop agency Conab has increased its forecast for domestic soybean production in the 2024/2025 season to 166.32 million metric tons, up from a previous estimate of 166.21 million tons. This adjustment is attributed to favorable weather conditions and a slight increase in the area planted with soybeans.
Key Highlights:
Production Increase:
The new forecast represents a 12.6% increase compared to the 2023/24 harvest and marks a record high for Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans.
However, this estimate is still below the projections from some private consultancies, which predict yields between 167 million tons and 173 million tons.
Cultivated Area:
Conab estimates the soybean cultivated area at 47.4 million hectares (approximately 117.1 million acres), reflecting a 2.7% increase from the previous period. This is a slight upward adjustment from December’s estimate of 2.6% growth.
Export Expectations:
Brazil is expected to export over 105 million tons of soybeans this season, surpassing the 98.6 million tons exported last year, thanks to abundant supplies. The majority of these exports are directed towards China.
Corn Production Update:
In its latest report, Conab has slightly reduced its total corn production forecast to 119.55 million metric tons. This adjustment accounts for a decrease in the area planted with first-corn and drier conditions in southern Brazil, leading to yield losses.
Brazil typically plants three corn crops annually, with the second corn crop being the largest. This crop is planted after soybeans in the same fields and typically accounts for 70-75% of annual corn production.
Planting Schedule and Risks:
The planting of the second corn crop is expected to begin later than usual due to delays in the soybean cycle. While it was anticipated to start at the end of December, it is now expected to gain momentum towards the end of January and into February.
A delayed planting schedule increases the crop’s exposure to climate risks, which could affect overall yields.