Three major Canadian oil producers—Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, and Imperial Oil—projected higher production levels for 2025, driven by strong demand for Canadian crude in both U.S. and international markets.
Key Highlights:
Production Forecasts:
Suncor Energy expects its 2025 production to range between 810,000 and 840,000 barrels per day (bpd), marking a 4.4% increase at the midpoint compared to 2024 projections.
Cenovus Energy anticipates a similar 4.4% rise, targeting 805,000 to 845,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, largely due to the commencement of the Narrows Lake oil sands project.
Imperial Oil forecasts a 3.1% increase in production, reflecting ongoing investments and project developments.
Market Dynamics:
The U.S., being the largest market for Canadian crude, is expected to see an uptick in fuel demand as industrial activity benefits from reduced borrowing rates, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
However, potential tariffs on Canadian goods, as threatened by incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, could impact oil exports if trade conditions change.
Pipeline Expansion Benefits:
The recent expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline has significantly increased oil flow to Canada’s Pacific Coast, nearly tripling capacity. This expansion has improved the price of Canadian crude and enhanced access to refineries in Asia and the U.S. West Coast.
Refinery Throughput and Capital Spending:
Suncor also projects a slight increase in refinery throughput to between 435,000 and 450,000 bpd in 2025. Its capital spending is expected to decrease by 3% to between C$6.1 billion and C$6.3 billion.
Imperial Oil plans to allocate between C$1.9 billion and C$2.1 billion for capital projects in 2025, exceeding analysts’ expectations, and has increased its 2024 capital expenditure by 9% to C$1.85 billion.
Stock Market Reactions:
Following the announcements, Imperial Oil shares fell 6% to C$97.85, while Suncor and Cenovus shares saw slight declines of 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively.