Australia has raised its wheat production forecast for the 2024/25 season by 100,000 metric tons, bringing the total estimate to 31.9 million tons. This adjustment is attributed to strong yields in the eastern and western regions, which are expected to offset losses in the south due to adverse weather conditions.
Key Highlights:
Production Increase:
The updated forecast reflects a 23% increase compared to last season’s production and is 20% above the 10-year average.
Global Supply Impact:
As one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, Australia’s increased wheat harvest will contribute to global supply at a time when prices are nearing four-year lows.
Barley and Canola Estimates:
Alongside the wheat forecast, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) reported a decrease in barley production by 500,000 tons and an increase in canola production by 100,000 tons compared to previous estimates.
Regional Performance:
Higher production levels are expected in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, which will help mitigate the impact of reduced production due to persistent dryness and severe frosts in southeastern Australia.
Harvest Results:
Despite earlier concerns about frost and dry weather, the ongoing harvest has yielded better-than-expected results.
Barley and Canola Projections:
For 2024/25, ABARES estimates 11.7 million tons of barley (up 8% from last year and 3% above the 10-year average) and 5.6 million tons of canola (down 8% from last year but 23% above the 10-year average).
Weather Forecasts:
Recent weather forecasts indicate potential above-median rainfall across most cropping areas in December, which could disrupt the harvest of remaining winter crops and lead to grain quality downgrades.