Brazilian soybean growers are preparing for a remarkable crop in the 2024/25 season, buoyed by favorable weather and high-quality agricultural inputs, according to agribusiness consultancies Celeres and StoneX.
Key Highlights:
Projected Output:
Celeres forecasts Brazil’s soybean production to reach 170.8 million tons, nearly 1 million tons above previous estimates, driven by an expansion in soybean planting areas.
StoneX estimates a slightly lower output of 166.2 million tons but has raised its export forecast to 103 million tons, up from 102 million tons in November.
Export Expectations:
Total soybean exports for the season are projected at 107 million tons, reflecting Brazil’s position as the world’s leading soybean producer and exporter, primarily shipping to China for processing.
Market Impact:
A substantial crop could exert downward pressure on global soybean prices, especially when compared to last season’s production of 154.5 million tons (Celeres) and 149.8 million tons (StoneX).
Risks Ahead:
Despite the optimistic outlook, StoneX highlighted potential risks from dryness in Southern Brazil, which could affect yields.
Other Consultancies’ Views:
Agroconsult recently projected a record crop of 172.2 million tons, surpassing the previous record set in 2022/23 by 10 million tons.
Seasonal Changes:
The outlook for soybeans has improved significantly since the beginning of the season when drought conditions delayed planting. Celeres noted that sowing in November was 13% ahead of the same period last year as weather conditions became more favorable.
Corn Production Benefits:
A timely soybean harvest will also benefit Brazil’s second corn crop, which is planted after soybean harvests and constitutes a significant portion of the country’s annual corn production.