Russian farmers are increasingly abandoning wheat cultivation in favor of more profitable crops such as peas, lentils, and sunflowers after suffering significant losses this year. This shift poses challenges to President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to enhance agricultural exports and solidify Russia’s status as a global agricultural superpower, particularly amid ongoing tensions with the West over Ukraine.
This year’s wheat harvest is projected to decline to 83 million tons, down from 92.8 million tons in 2023 and a record 104.2 million tons in 2022, largely due to adverse weather conditions, including frosts and droughts. Farmers are now grappling with the implications of a poor harvest and considering their options as profit margins for wheat dwindle.
Despite recent high export rates, Russian wheat exports are expected to slow due to this year’s poor harvest and impending export restrictions aimed at curbing domestic price increases, including a planned two-thirds cut in export quotas starting January 2025.
At a farm in Siberia’s Omsk region, farmer Maxim Levshunov shared his struggles with the weather’s impact, noting that many of his wheat crops were only suitable for animal feed, drastically reducing their market value. “We’ll probably start moving away from wheat, cutting back as much as possible,” he stated.
As the harvest season concludes, farmers are reassessing their losses and contemplating future planting strategies. Areas sown with winter wheat are expected to shrink by 10%, the lowest since 2019, according to data from Rusagrotrans. Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, highlighted the economic strain, stating that selling prices fail to cover production costs.
Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut’s lighthearted comment about praying for better weather was met with frustration by farmers who are seeking practical solutions. Many are already planning to reduce wheat planting for the next year, while others await clearer signals from global wheat prices before finalizing their decisions.
Rising operational costs, high export duties, and increased interest rates—reaching 21% in October—are further squeezing profit margins. Sergei Lisovsky, a member of Russia’s parliament, noted that the cost of grain production has surged by at least 28% since 2022, exacerbating the situation.
In the fertile Krasnodar region, while wheat profitability remains around 10%, some large farms are also considering strategic shifts due to worsening drought conditions. Yevgeny Gromyko from Tkachev Agrocomplex emphasized the need to adapt sowing practices in response to climate changes.
Despite these challenges, niche crops could emerge as new export opportunities, particularly with Russia’s allies in the BRICS nations. Russia has recently become the top exporter of peas to China and gained approval for lentil exports to India, which could help counterbalance losses in wheat.
While Russia takes pride in its status as the world’s leading wheat exporter, the immediate concerns for farmers revolve around financial viability rather than global prestige. “Many farms that specialized exclusively in wheat crops have operated at a loss this year and will face serious financial difficulties,” Levshunov warned.