Ukraine’s wheat harvest is expected to increase to up to 25 million metric tons in 2025, up from an anticipated 22 million tons this year. This projection comes from First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy, who spoke to Reuters about the anticipated expansion in the sowing area.
Vysotskiy indicated that the sowing area for wheat could reach 5 million hectares in 2025, compared to 4.6 million hectares in 2024. Before the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine typically sowed 6 million hectares of winter wheat, but this area has been significantly reduced due to occupation and landmines.
For the current year, Ukraine is projected to harvest 22 million tons of wheat, which is below the pre-war average of 25-28 million tons. Vysotskiy noted that “if we take into account the average yield, we would have at least 22 million tons, but if the weather is favorable, it could reach 25 million tons.”
Winter wheat accounts for approximately 95% of Ukraine’s total wheat output. Vysotskiy mentioned that most of the sowing area has emerged, but the final yield will depend heavily on winter and spring weather conditions. A record drought over the summer and autumn has led many farmers to sow grain in dry soil, hoping for beneficial autumn rains and a mild winter for seed germination.
The Ukrainian National Agricultural Academy has reported that unfavorable weather conditions in September and October have posed challenges for the development of winter crops, with many seedlings lacking adequate moisture. However, Vysotskiy reassured that “germination is more than 90%,” and there is currently “no apocalyptic scenario.”
In addition to wheat, Ukraine is a significant grower and exporter of corn. However, export difficulties have led to a reduction in the sown area for corn, dropping to 3.9 million hectares in 2024 from 5.5 million hectares in 2021. Farmers have shifted some focus to soybeans, resulting in a record output of 6 million tons this year.
Vysotskiy noted that the large soybean harvest has led to a decrease in prices, prompting farmers to consider a return to corn in 2025. He predicts that corn planting could increase by 0.5 million hectares, while soybean acreage may decrease by the same amount. The area for sunflowers is expected to remain stable at up to 5.5 million hectares in 2025.