The European Steel Association (Eurofer) has revised its steel demand outlook for 2024, predicting a decline due to ongoing economic challenges. Key points include:
Demand Reduction: Eurofer downgraded its forecast from a 1.4% growth to a 1.8% decline in steel demand for the EU, marking the fourth revision this year. This reflects the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, and a sluggish manufacturing sector.
Future Projections: While Eurofer anticipates a modest recovery in 2025, it has lowered the growth forecast for apparent steel consumption to 3.8% from 4.2%. Apparent consumption measures the output of steel producers combined with net imports minus net exports.
Consumption Trends: Data indicates that apparent steel consumption fell by 1.3% in Q2 2024, following a 3% decline in Q1. This trend underscores the need for urgent action to support sustainable steel production and jobs in Europe.
Call for Action: Eurofer’s general director, Axel Eggert, emphasized the importance of addressing issues like global overcapacity, unfair trade practices, and high energy costs, which threaten the steel industry.
Import Dynamics: Despite a 1.5% drop in steel imports, their share of the EU market reached a historic high of 28%, indicating a shift in reliance on external sources.
Industry Impact: The Spanish steelmaker Acerinox reported a significant drop in third-quarter net profit, attributing it to a weak stainless steel market in both Europe and North America, which is expected to persist.