According to a forecast by Argus Media, French soft wheat exports outside the European Union are expected to decline by 60% in the 2024/25 season, reaching their lowest level in 23 years. This significant drop is attributed to adverse weather conditions that severely impacted crop yields in France, the EU’s largest wheat producer.
Argus estimates that French wheat exports outside the EU will total approximately 4.1 million metric tons, compared to a five-year average of 10 million tons. Key markets, including Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, are anticipated to import around 1 million tons each this season, coinciding with rising demand due to poor harvests in those regions.
Additionally, French wheat sales to China are projected to be significantly affected, with no sales reported so far this season. However, exports within the EU are expected to remain relatively stable at around 6.3 million tons.
The forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in France stands at 25.17 million tons, a 27% decrease from the five-year average and the smallest yield in 41 years, primarily due to heavy rainfall that reduced both crop area and yields.
At the EU level, the exportable surplus is projected to drop by 11 million tons to 30 million tons, largely due to the decline in French output and a poor harvest in Germany, which will not be compensated by better yields in other exporting countries like Romania and Bulgaria.