Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has increased its 2024 grain export forecast by 2.2%, raising it from 55 million metric tons to 56.2 million metric tons. The consultancy also adjusted its grain crop estimate upward to 129.5 million metric tons, up from a previous estimate of 128 million metric tons. In comparison, Russia’s official forecast anticipates this year’s harvest to be around 132 million tons.
The adjustments come in light of extreme weather conditions, including early spring frosts, floods, and summer heat, which have impacted harvest expectations in key producing regions. Despite these challenges, the weather has also expedited the harvesting process, with approximately 40% of grain and legume fields already harvested, yielding nearly 64 million tons as of last week.