Recent rainfall across Australia has significantly improved the outlook for the country’s 2024/25 wheat production, with projections now at around 30 million metric tons. This marks a notable increase from earlier estimates of approximately 25 million tons. Australia, the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, produced 26 million tons in the previous year and 40.5 million tons during the wetter 2022/23 season.
While the rain has benefited many cropping zones, some areas, particularly in Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia, still face low root zone soil moisture, raising concerns about future harvest conditions.
However, analysts warn that weak demand from China, a significant market for Australian wheat, could dampen the positive outlook. Record imports by China in recent years may not continue, potentially leading to a substantial impact on Australian wheat prices during the harvest season.
Adam Clarke from AC Grain noted that Australia has not secured any new-crop wheat sales to China, and analysts are cautious about the potential effects of a lack of demand.