According to Antaike, a prominent Chinese state-backed research organization, copper prices are expected to decline in the latter half of 2024 due to steady output and concerns over weak demand. Analyst Li Zhimei stated that factors such as worries about a global economic slowdown, consistent growth in refined copper output, and anticipated interest rate cuts will exert downward pressure on prices.
The next support levels for copper are projected at $8,500 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and 68,900 yuan ($9,540.29) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). If these levels are breached, prices could potentially drop to $8,000 and 64,900 yuan, respectively.
Antaike forecasts that China’s refined copper demand growth will slow to 2.5% in 2024, down from 5.3% in the previous year, primarily due to weakness in the construction sector. The global refined copper surplus is expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2024, slightly higher than the previous year, while the concentrate market is anticipated to remain tight with a projected shortfall of 200,000 tons.