Analysts are maintaining their oil price forecasts for the second half of 2024, with Brent crude expected to average $83.66 per barrel and U.S. crude at $79.22. These projections reflect a balance between geopolitical risks and muted demand from major consumers like China, according to a Reuters poll of 36 analysts.
Prices are anticipated to remain in the $80-85 per barrel range, supported by stable supply-demand dynamics. Analysts noted that slower demand in Europe, combined with improved OPEC+ supply, will contribute to price stability. Year-to-date, Brent crude is up 4.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude has risen 7.1%.
China’s fuel oil imports fell by 11% in the first half of the year due to economic challenges and a rapid shift towards electric mobility. Demand in Western markets is also stagnating, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to the International Energy Agency’s estimate of just under a million.
While some experts believe geopolitical risks have diminished, others highlight ongoing concerns, particularly regarding the conflict in Gaza and its potential regional implications.
The poll participants expect OPEC+ to continue its production cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2025, while gradually phasing out additional cuts from October 2024.