During the annual North Dakota crop tour, scouts forecasted that hard red spring wheat yields will average 54.5 bushels per acre, marking the highest yield ever recorded since 1992. This estimate significantly surpasses the Wheat Quality Council’s 2023 estimate of 47.4 bushels per acre and the five-year average of 42 bushels per acre, excluding 2020.
While the promising yield forecast is encouraging, it has raised concerns among farmers, who fear that an abundant spring wheat crop could further depress U.S. wheat future prices, which are currently near four-year lows. The cool and rainy weather that boosted yield expectations has also contributed to the spread of fusarium head blight (scab), a fungal disease that can lead to significant discounts on grain prices.
Brian Walker, a member of the Wheat Quality Council, noted, “There’s probably six weeks left until harvest and a lot of things can happen. But right now, the potential looks really nice.” However, experts warned that upcoming hot weather and potential triple-digit temperatures could ultimately affect the harvest outcome.
Grain traders, millers, and exporters are closely monitoring the conditions of hard red spring wheat, which is essential for making products like pizza crusts, breads, and bagels. In contrast, major wheat-growing areas in the Black Sea region have faced drought, although improving yield forecasts from ongoing harvests there have influenced futures prices.
Scouts on the tour observed lush fields where the wheat was so dense that the ground was barely visible. Nonetheless, the presence of fusarium fungus, identifiable by salmon-pink streaks on wheat heads, raised health concerns, as it can cause vomiting in animals and humans if present in significant quantities.