The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, predicting robust fuel use during the summer months.
In its monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from the previous month.
OPEC attributed the expected strong demand growth to “expected strong mobility and air travel in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer driving/holiday season,” which is anticipated to “bolster demand for transportation fuels and drive growth in the United States.”
The report noted that there is a wider than usual split between forecasters on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over the pace of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels. Earlier on Wednesday, BP had said oil demand would peak next year.
OPEC+ (OPEC and its allies, including Russia) has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. The group agreed on June 2 to extend the latest cut of 2.2 million bpd until the end of September and gradually phase it out from October.
The decision to maintain its 2024 oil demand forecast suggests that OPEC remains confident in the strength of the global economy and the continued recovery in travel and transportation fuel demand, despite some diverging views from other industry analysts.