According to BP’s annual Energy Outlook, the company expects oil demand to peak next year (2025) in both of its two main scenarios. The report also forecasts rapid growth in wind and solar capacity in both scenarios.
The two main scenarios are:
Current Trajectory scenario: Based on climate policies and carbon reduction pledges already in place.
Net Zero scenario: Assumes a significant tightening of climate policies aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement to cut global carbon emissions by around 95% by the middle of the century.
Key Findings:
In the Current Trajectory scenario, primary energy demand rises up to the mid-2030s before broadly plateauing, with a 5% increase by 2050 compared to 2022.
In the Net Zero scenario, energy demand peaks in the middle of the current decade before declining, with a 25% decrease by 2050 compared to 2022.
Carbon emissions are far off the net zero ambition in the Current Trajectory scenario, which most major economies have committed to achieving.
Both scenarios see rapid growth in wind and solar capacity, indicating the accelerating energy transition.
The report suggests that oil demand is expected to peak in 2025 in both the Current Trajectory and Net Zero scenarios, reflecting the growing momentum towards renewable energy sources and decarbonization efforts globally.