Russian wheat export prices ended a six-week consecutive rise last week, dropping along with global markets following Turkey’s decision to refuse wheat imports until mid-October.
The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late June was $242 per metric ton, down $6 from the previous week, according to the IKAR consultancy. The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $250-$253 a ton, down from $252-$255 a ton FOB.
Sovecon said the impact of Turkey’s ban is uncertain, but the country’s wheat imports are likely to drop even without the restrictions. The analysts noted that “we may see a reduction in Turkey’s wheat import estimates in the new WASDE report, partially offsetting a smaller Russian crop figure.”
Turkey is one of the largest importers of Russian wheat. The analysts added that “Russian wheat crop problems were largely unnoticed by the market.”
Last week, Sovecon cut its 2024 wheat crop forecast to 80.7 million metric tons. The Ukrainian agriculture ministry may also adjust its 2024 grain harvest forecast of 132 million tons, including 86 million tons of wheat, due to drought in southern, central, and Volga regions.
Despite the decline in wheat prices, Russia said it was declaring a federal emergency in 10 regions because of damage to crops from May frosts, a measure that will help farmers with extra funds but should not derail export obligations.
As of May 31, Russian farmers had seeded 24.0 million hectares of grains, compared to 27.8 million hectares in the same period in 2023, including 10.4 million hectares of spring wheat, down from 13.1 million last year.