According to analyst firm APK-Inform, Ukraine’s grain harvest in 2024 is forecast to decrease by 12% year-on-year to 52.76 million metric tons. This projection is in line with the Ukrainian agriculture ministry’s estimate of 52.4 million tons.
The consultancy’s breakdown of the 2024 harvest includes:
Wheat: 19.99 million tons
Corn: 26.77 million tons
Barley: 4.51 million tons
APK-Inform also expects Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2024/25 July-June season to fall by 26% to 36.16 million tons, compared to 49.02 million tons in 2023/24.
The projected 2024/25 grain exports are expected to include:
Wheat: 12.7 million tons
Corn: 21.3 million tons
For the current 2023/24 season, Ukraine is likely to export 28 million tons of corn and 18.2 million tons of wheat.
The decrease in both the grain harvest and exports reflects the ongoing impact of the Russian invasion that began in February 2022. The conflict has disrupted Ukraine’s agricultural sector, leading to reduced production and export capacity.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine remains a major global grain producer and exporter. The country’s ability to recover and restore its agricultural output will be crucial for global food security in the coming years.