The French farm office, FranceAgriMer, has increased its forecast of French soft wheat stocks for the 2023/24 season to a new 19-year high, as it reduced domestic demand from livestock feed and starch makers.
In its latest supply and demand outlook, FranceAgriMer raised its projection of soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season on June 30 to 3.90 million metric tons, up from 3.75 million forecast last month. This would be 53.6% above last season’s level and the biggest stock since 2004/05.
The office further cut its outlook for demand from the starch sector this season, now expected at 2.1 million tons compared to 2.2 million forecast last month and 16.6% below the 2022/23 level. Starch demand has been affected by a broad downturn in the European sector, as well as a halt to production at one French factory following a fire late last year.
FranceAgriMer also lowered projected livestock feed demand to 4.58 million tons from 4.65 million estimated in April.
On the export side, the office made small adjustments to its forecasts. French soft wheat shipments within the European Union this season were trimmed to 6.25 million tons from 6.28 million expected in April, while soft wheat exports outside the EU were increased slightly to 10.05 million from 10.00 million. Demand for French wheat within the EU has been curbed by imports of Ukrainian grain, while French shipments outside the bloc have been limited by Russian competition.
In contrast, the office lowered its forecasts for barley and maize ending stocks in 2023/24. Barley stocks were now pegged at 1.58 million tons, down from 1.66 million forecast last month, mainly due to a 100,000 ton upward revision to non-EU exports. Maize stocks were now anticipated at 2.27 million tons, down from 2.34 million last month, due to increases in expected domestic feed demand and exports within the EU.