Strategie Grains, the agricultural consultancy, has increased its monthly forecast for this year’s soft wheat crop in the European Union by 1.7 million metric tons to 123.5 million tons. The revised outlook is supported by favorable harvest prospects in Spain.
Despite the increase, the consultancy’s forecast is still lower than last year’s production, estimated at 126.1 million tons, after a fall in planting following heavy rain in parts of western Europe.
Strategie Grains cited Spain as the main factor behind the upward revision to its outlook for the 2024 EU barley crop, which it increased by 0.5 million tons compared to April to 53.0 million tons. This is nearly 12% above last year’s drought-hit EU barley crop of 47.4 million tons.
In addition to Spain, the raised forecasts for soft wheat and barley also reflected improved conditions in Romania, Bulgaria, and to a lesser extent, France and Germany.
However, the consultancy warned that the return of rainfall in mid-May in western EU countries is unlikely to generate any further upwards production revisions, and effectively confirms the expected year-on-year fall in soft wheat production.
France, the EU’s top grain producer, is widely expected to gather its smallest soft wheat crop in four years after torrential rain cut sowing by more than 7%.
The forecast drop in EU production this year is seen leading to lower EU soft wheat exports in 2024/25, though downward revisions to harvest forecasts in Russia following adverse weather could boost overseas demand for EU wheat, Strategie Grains said.
The consultancy also trimmed its outlook for this year’s EU maize harvest to 63.3 million tons from 63.4 million in April, though that is still above last year’s output of 62.4 million.