Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week as volatile weather conditions made crop forecasts difficult. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in June was $216 a metric ton, up from $212 a ton the previous week, according to the Sovecon agriculture consultancy.
The volatile weather in Russia has been a key topic for the global market. Dry weather in the south of the country, as well as May frosts in central regions, the Volga region, and some southern regions, could have a negative impact on the crop, analysts said.
Sovecon wrote in a weekly note that the precipitation outlook has substantially worsened during the week, with models earlier predicting meaningful rain in the South this weekend, which is no longer the case. The consultancy suggested another revision to the crop forecast, as the weather models predict more noticeable rain in the South in the second half of May, but by that time, the plants are likely to be substantially impacted.
IKAR, another agriculture consultancy, has already cut its forecasts for Russia’s wheat crop and wheat exports last week. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and its exports fell to 0.77 million metric tons of grain in a shortened workweek last week, down from 0.99 million metric tons the previous week.
As of April 26, farmers had seeded 4.9 million hectares of grains, compared to 7.1 million hectares in the same period in 2023. This included 1.1 million hectares of spring wheat, compared to 2.2 million last year, according to Sovecon.
The volatile weather conditions and the potential impact on the Russian wheat crop have contributed to the continued rise in export prices, as the global market closely watches the developments in this key exporting country.