Ukraine’s farm ministry has projected a decrease in the country’s grain harvest to approximately 52 million metric tons in 2024, down from 58 million tons in 2023. The anticipated decline is primarily attributed to an expected reduction in the sowing area, with the ministry forecasting a 4.5% decrease in the sowing area for corn to 3.863 million hectares, compared to 4.043 million hectares in 2023.
While farmers are expected to reduce the sown area for spring wheat and sunflowers, they are likely to increase it for spring barley and soybeans. The ministry’s crop forecast indicates that Ukraine could harvest 27 million tons of corn, 19 million tons of wheat, and 5 million tons of barley this year. Additionally, farmers are expected to thresh 4 million tons of rapeseed, 12.5 million tons of sunseed, and 5.2 million tons of soybeans.
The reduction in sunoil prices may prompt producers to cut the sown area for sunflowers to 5.292 million hectares from 5.307 million in 2023. The Ukrainian grain traders union UGA anticipates a combined grain and oilseeds harvest of 76.1 million tons in 2024, down from 82.6 million tons in the previous year, reflecting the ongoing impact of changing market dynamics and geopolitical developments.