The looming return of a potentially strong La Nina event by October has sparked apprehension among grains farmers in Argentina, a key global grains exporter. La Nina typically ushers in dry conditions and reduced rainfall, posing challenges for the wheat crop’s development and the upcoming planting of corn and soybeans for the 2024/25 season.
According to the Rosario grains exchange, there is a high likelihood of a La Nina event with a 77% probability in October, as indicated by data from international sources. The prospect of this climate phenomenon’s resurgence has raised alarms within the agricultural sector, given its historical impact on crop production.
Argentina, currently navigating the 2023/24 campaign, recently emerged from a series of consecutive La Nina cycles that significantly impacted the previous harvest, leading to substantial yield reductions in key crops like soy, corn, and wheat. The forecast for a robust manifestation of La Nina heightens concerns, with projections suggesting an intensity rarely witnessed in the past 25 years.
Notable cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean associated with La Nina are anticipated, reminiscent of conditions observed in the late 2000s. The exchange highlighted the parallels between the current climate outlook and the severe drought experienced in Argentina during the 2008/09 campaign, underscoring the potential risks posed by the impending La Nina event.
While soy and corn crops in Argentina are currently benefiting from favorable conditions attributed to the El Nino phenomenon, characterized by ample rainfall, the impending shift towards La Nina poses a contrasting scenario. The Rosario exchange projects a robust soybean harvest of 49.5 million tons and a corn yield of 57 million tons for the ongoing 2023/24 season, reflecting the current positive growth trajectory amidst evolving climatic uncertainties.
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